The verdict in three sentences
In mobile money, payment is never guaranteed upfront: dunning is what collects. A well-timed dunning sequence recovers 25 to 40 % of failures and drops involuntary churn from 18 % to 7 %. On a SaaS at 24,900 FCFA/month, that gap is worth hundreds of thousands of FCFA of saved MRR every month.
The dunning sequence that works
The principle: multiply channels and respect the customer's cash-flow rhythm (payday at the start/end of month). Each step targets a different window and channel.
| Step | Day | Channel | Message | Cumulative recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D0 | Push/app link | Due reminder + link | 8-12 % |
| 2 | D+1 | SMS | Prefilled link | 15-20 % |
| 3 | D+3 | Human message + link | 25-32 % | |
| 4 | D+5 | Call | Direct contact | 30-38 % |
| 5 | D+7 | Email + soft suspension | Last chance | 32-40 % |
Beyond D+7, recovery probability falls below 5 %. The point is to act fast, while usage intent is still warm.
MRR impact: the real cost of involuntary churn
Involuntary churn (technical failure, not cancellation) is often invisible in dashboards. Here is its weight on 1,000 subscribers at 24,900 FCFA/month.
| Scenario | Involuntary churn | Lost subs/month | MRR lost/month | MRR lost/year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dunning | 18 % | 180 | 4,482,000 FCFA | 53,784,000 FCFA |
| Basic dunning (SMS) | 12 % | 120 | 2,988,000 FCFA | 35,856,000 FCFA |
| Multichannel dunning | 7 % | 70 | 1,743,000 FCFA | 20,916,000 FCFA |
Moving from 18 % to 7 % saves 110 subscribers/month, i.e. 2,739,000 FCFA of monthly MRR recovered, for a marginal reminder cost.
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Mini case study
Moussa runs a billing SaaS at 24,900 FCFA/month, 1,000 subscribers. Without dunning he loses 180 subscribers/month. He deploys the multichannel sequence: estimated cost of 120 FCFA per handled failure (SMS + WhatsApp + call minutes) on 180 failures = 21,600 FCFA/month. He recovers 110 subscribers, i.e. 2,739,000 FCFA. The net recovery ROI exceeds 125x, not counting preserved LTV in following months.
FAQ
How many reminder steps are profitable? Beyond five steps over seven days, marginal return turns negative. Focus effort on D0-D+5, where 90 % of recovery happens.
Is WhatsApp really the best channel? In 2026 Senegal, a human WhatsApp message beats SMS by 10 to 15 points of recovery rate, because it carries a clickable link and answers objections.
Should I suspend access on failure? Yes, but softly: allow 5 to 7 grace days before suspension. An immediate cut-off turns involuntary churn into a definitive cancellation.
What is the order of magnitude of a reminder's cost? 2026 estimate: 5-20 FCFA an SMS, near-zero a WhatsApp template, and one call minute for high-value accounts. Reserve calls for premium subscribers.
Can the whole dunning flow be automated? Steps 1 to 3 are fully automatable (push, SMS, WhatsApp API). The D+5 call stays human and targets high-revenue accounts.
Let's talk about your project. We set up your multichannel reminder engine to turn payment failures into recovered MRR. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
