The verdict in three sentences
An MS Access database or a macro-heavy Excel workbook running production is not a problem while it works, but it becomes an operational risk as soon as only one person can maintain it. For a mid-sized manufacturer in Berlin, the full replacement budget in 2026 sits between 31,000 and 69,000 EUR excl. VAT (audit, web rewrite, data migration). Against an estimated production downtime cost of 12,000 EUR per day, three days of outage are enough to pay for the audit and part of the project.
Measuring the risk of doing nothing
The real issue is not technology but dependency. Access 2010 is no longer supported by Microsoft, recent Windows 11 machines cause ODBC driver issues, and a shared .accdb file on a network drive tends to corrupt beyond 5 to 10 concurrent users. Here are typical scenarios and their cost for a company of 60 to 120 employees.
| Failure scenario | Estimated annual probability | Downtime | Estimated cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupted .accdb file | 10 to 20% | 1 to 2 days | 12,000 to 24,000 EUR |
| Sole maintainer leaves or falls ill | 15 to 25% | 3 to 10 days degraded | 20,000 to 60,000 EUR |
| Incompatible Office or Windows update | 10 to 15% | 0.5 to 2 days | 6,000 to 24,000 EUR |
| Undetected Excel formula error | 20 to 30% | Invisible, stock errors | 5,000 to 30,000 EUR |
| Data leak (file copied to USB stick) | 5% | Variable | GDPR fine + reputation |
| Failed customer or ISO 9001 audit | 5 to 10% | Supplier delisting | Lost contract |
Adding up the expected values, a company is exposed to an average annual cost of 15,000 to 40,000 EUR, excluding time lost to re-keying data. That figure is the baseline for the ROI calculation.
2026 budget for a modernisation project
The project splits into three distinct phases. The audit is essential: it inventories tables, queries, forms, VBA macros and the implicit rules nobody ever documented.
| Phase | Scope | Price excl. VAT 2026 | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|
| Audit and mapping | Inventory of 30 to 80 tables, macros, flows, users | 3,000 to 6,000 EUR | 2 to 3 weeks |
| Specifications | Workshops with shop floor, quality and logistics | Included or 2,000 to 4,000 EUR | 2 weeks |
| Web application rewrite | Work orders, bills of materials, lot traceability, roles | 25,000 to 55,000 EUR | 3 to 5 months |
| Data migration | Cleaning and migrating 15 years of history | 3,000 to 8,000 EUR | 2 to 4 weeks |
| Parallel run | Access read-only during cutover | 1,000 to 3,000 EUR | 4 weeks |
| Maintenance and hosting | EU server, backups, minor changes | 300 to 900 EUR/month | Ongoing |
These are 2026 estimates for an agency or custom software studio. A modern web application brings concrete gains: access from shop-floor tablets, change history, role-based permissions, automatic backups and APIs to the ERP or accounting software.
Full rewrite or gradual migration?
Two strategies exist. A full rewrite replaces everything in one cutover, with risk concentrated on a single date. A gradual migration first moves the tables to PostgreSQL or SQL Server while keeping the Access forms, then replaces screens module by module. The second path costs 10 to 15% more but sharply reduces the risk of downtime.
Mini case study
Marc, operations director of an 85-employee precision engineering company near Berlin, manages work orders and lot traceability in a 2009 Access database. Only Patrick, a process technician, can modify it, and he retires in 18 months. Marc commissions an audit at 4,500 EUR excl. VAT, then a rewrite at 42,000 EUR and data migration at 5,500 EUR, for 52,000 EUR excl. VAT in total.
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Estimated annual gain: 25,000 EUR of avoided downtime risk, plus 6 hours per week of re-keying eliminated for 3 people at 35 EUR/h, about 30,000 EUR per year. The project pays back in under 12 months, before Patrick even leaves.
FAQ
Can we keep Excel for some uses?
Yes, the web application can export to Excel in one click for ad hoc analysis. What you must avoid is a workbook remaining the source of truth for production, since 20 to 30% of complex workbooks contain formula errors.
How long does the cutover take?
Allow 4 to 6 months in total, including 4 weeks of parallel running. Actual downtime at cutover is usually limited to one weekend.
Will the 2009 data be migrated?
Yes, migrating 15 years of history costs 3,000 to 8,000 EUR depending on data quality. Duplicates and orphan records are cleaned during migration.
Should we buy an off-the-shelf ERP instead?
A standard ERP often costs 40,000 to 120,000 EUR with configuration and imposes its own processes. If your Access database encodes specific know-how, a custom application at 25,000 to 55,000 EUR is often the better fit.
Who will own the code?
Require, by contract, assignment of rights and access to the source code repository. That prevents you from recreating a single-vendor dependency, the same risk you have with your current maintainer.
Let's scope your project. Describe your current Access or Excel setup: we scope the audit from 3,000 EUR excl. VAT and price the full rewrite, with a cutover plan that avoids production downtime. Detailed quote within 48 h. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
