The verdict in three sentences
In Senegal, post-checkout abandonment runs around 25%: the customer clicked "pay" but never confirmed, often because their wallet balance was insufficient or a USSD code failed. A three-message recovery sequence (WhatsApp + SMS) with a pre-filled payment link recovers about 20% of those carts, the 2-hour first follow-up doing most of the work. The ROI is massive because a message costs next to nothing against the value of a recovered cart.
Why people abandon after clicking "pay"
Unlike classic abandonment (price comparison, surprise shipping), mobile money abandonment is often technical and recoverable: the customer WANTED to pay but couldn't at that moment.
| Abandonment cause | Est. frequency | Recoverable? |
|---|---|---|
| Insufficient wallet balance | ~35% | Yes (top-up then follow-up) |
| Failed USSD code / timeout | ~25% | Yes (pre-filled link) |
| Price hesitation | ~20% | Sometimes (promo code) |
| Distraction / interruption | ~15% | Yes (simple reminder) |
| Genuine change of mind | ~5% | No |
Three-message recovery sequence
Timing beats message count. The fast first follow-up catches the still-warm customer; the later ones recover those who had to top up their wallet.
| Message | Delay | Channel | Content | Est. marginal recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 h | Pre-filled link + cart reminder | ~12% | |
| 2 | 24 h | Follow-up + objection handling | ~5% | |
| 3 | 72 h | SMS | Final reminder + small incentive | ~3% |
Total: about 20% of abandoned carts recovered. Beyond three messages, returns turn negligible and the risk of annoying the customer rises.
Channel cost and ROI
SMS costs a few francs per send but reaches everyone; WhatsApp is nearly free but needs an opt-in number. A mix of both maximizes reach at controlled cost — within WhatsApp usage rules (never mass spam).
Mini case study
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Awa, who runs a ready-to-wear shop in Dakar, gets 300 validated orders a month. With 25% post-checkout abandonment, she loses about 100 carts at a 20,000 FCFA average basket — 2,000,000 FCFA of potential revenue evaporated. Deploying the three-message sequence, she recovers 20% of those 100 carts, or 20 sales, equal to 400,000 FCFA in extra monthly revenue. Sequence cost: a few thousand francs in SMS plus some setup. ROI exceeds 50 to 1.
FAQ
What is the typical post-checkout abandonment rate in Senegal?
About 25% in mobile money, one cart in four after the "pay" click. The good news: much of it is technical and therefore recoverable via follow-up.
When should the first follow-up go out?
Around 2 hours, when the customer is still close to their buying intent but has had time to top up their wallet. This first message recovers the most, about 12% of carts.
WhatsApp or SMS for follow-up?
A mix. WhatsApp is nearly free and rich (clickable link, product image) but requires opt-in; SMS reaches everyone at a few francs each. Always respect usage limits to avoid being blocked.
Should I offer a discount in the follow-up?
Not systematically. Most mobile money abandonments are technical, so a simple pre-filled link is enough. Reserve a small incentive for the third message for the undecided, to protect your margin.
Let's talk about your project. We'll set up your WhatsApp + SMS recovery sequence with pre-filled payment links. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
