The verdict in three sentences
The last mile is 40 to 55 % of your logistics cost and decides whether your store makes or loses money on every order. Three models compete in Lagos in 2026: the in-house motorbike rider (fixed, predictable), aggregators (Gokada, Bolt Delivery, flexible but commissioned), and on-demand couriers (fast, expensive). The right pick depends on your monthly volume and your delivery failure rate, routinely underestimated at 12 %.
The three delivery models compared
In Lagos, an intra-city delivery costs roughly 1,500 to 3,000 FCFA equivalent depending on zone and urgency. The blind spot for new stores is the failure rate: a wrong address, an unreachable or absent customer means a trip paid for twice. Here are the 2026 ballpark figures.
| Model | Cost / delivery | Lead time | 1st-attempt failure | Ideal volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In-house rider | 1,200-1,800 FCFA | 2-6 h | 8 % | > 150/mo |
| Aggregator (Gokada/Bolt) | 1,800-2,500 FCFA | 1-4 h | 12 % | 30-150/mo |
| On-demand courier | 2,500-3,500 FCFA | 30 min-2 h | 6 % | Urgent |
| Pickup point | 500-900 FCFA | 24-48 h | 3 % | All volumes |
| Post / intercity carrier | 2,000-4,000 FCFA | 2-5 d | 15 % | Outside Lagos |
The pickup point is the hidden winner: cost cut in half and near-zero failure, because the customer collects the parcel when convenient.
The cash-on-delivery effect on your cash flow
In 2026, most orders in Nigeria still pay on delivery (COD). It reassures the customer but chokes your cash flow: you front the stock and the trip, and only get paid 3 to 7 days later once the aggregator remits the collection.
| Item | COD | Mobile-money prepayment |
|---|---|---|
| Time to cash | 3-7 days | Instant |
| Doorstep refusal rate | 22 % | 3 % |
| Cash collection fee | 1.5-2.5 % | 1-1.5 % |
| Trip lost on refusal | Yes (paid 2x) | No |
| Cash-flow impact | Blocking | Smooth |
Every COD refusal costs you the outbound trip plus the return trip, up to 5,000 FCFA of pure loss on a 15,000 FCFA order.
Mini case study
Bola, who runs a cosmetics store in Lekki, ships 200 orders/month. With an aggregator at 2,200 FCFA and 12 % failure, she pays 200 trips plus 24 failed redeliveries, about 493,000 FCFA/month. By hiring an in-house rider (salary + fuel = 180,000 FCFA/month, real per-trip cost 1,400 FCFA at this volume) and pushing pickup-point collection for 30 % of orders, she drops to around 340,000 FCFA/month. Savings: 153,000 FCFA/month, over 1.8 million FCFA a year, plus a failure rate cut from 12 % to 8 %.
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FAQ
Which model should I choose when starting under 50 orders/month?
The aggregator (Gokada, Bolt Delivery) stays most profitable: no fixed cost, you pay per trip between 1,800 and 2,500 FCFA. Below 150 orders/month, an in-house rider costs more than it saves.
How do I reduce the delivery failure rate?
Capture GPS location at checkout, call the customer 30 minutes ahead, and offer a pickup point. These three levers take failure from 12 % down to around 6 %, worth hundreds of thousands of FCFA a year.
Is a pickup point really worth it?
Yes: at 500-900 FCFA per delivery versus 2,000+ FCFA to the door, with failure under 3 %, it is the most profitable channel. You just need one trusted partner (shop, pharmacy, kiosk) per neighborhood.
Should I calculate delivery cost at checkout?
Absolutely. A flat shipping fee scares off nearby customers and undercharges distant ones. A per-zone calculation lifts average basket by about 14 % and cuts surprise-fee abandonment.
How do I handle deliveries outside Lagos?
Use an intercity carrier or the post with tracking, and require mobile-money prepayment: failure rises to 15 % and long-distance COD is too risky for your cash flow.
Let's talk about your project. We set up your store with per-zone delivery pricing, GPS capture and mobile-money payment to cut your last-mile costs. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
