The verdict in three sentences
A single flat delivery fee is the worst of both worlds: you under-charge far zones (losing 5-12 % of margin) and over-charge nearby customers who abandon their cart. The right 2026 architecture combines a realistic zone-based fee with a conditional free-shipping threshold set at 1.5-2x your average basket. Tuned well, this pair adds +10 to +18 % conversion without eating your margin.
The three pricing models and their impact
Three approaches dominate West African e-commerce. Flat pricing is simple but leaks money; zone pricing tracks real cost; conditional free shipping pushes the average basket up.
| Model | Customer cost | Margin effect | Conversion effect 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat fee 1,500 FCFA | Fixed everywhere | -5 to -12 % far zones | Baseline |
| Zone fee 1,000-2,500 FCFA | Variable | Neutral to +3 % | +4 to +8 % |
| Free above threshold (e.g. 25,000 FCFA) | 0 above | -2 % occasional | +10 to +18 % |
| Weight-based fee | Variable | Fairest | +2 to +6 % |
| Mixed zone + threshold | Variable | Optimised | +12 to +20 % |
Recommended zone grid for Lagos (2026 order of magnitude)
These 2026 ranges are estimates to adjust for your courier (in-house, bike, third party). The idea: charge as close as possible to the real last-mile cost.
| Zone | Real last-mile cost | Suggested customer fee | Delay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lagos Island / CBD | 800-1,200 FCFA | 1,000 FCFA | 24 h |
| Victoria Island / Lekki | 1,200-1,800 FCFA | 1,500 FCFA | 24-48 h |
| Ikeja / Surulere | 1,000-1,500 FCFA | 1,500 FCFA | 24-48 h |
| Ikorodu / Mainland outskirts | 1,500-2,200 FCFA | 2,000 FCFA | 48 h |
| Ajah / Epe corridor | 2,000-2,800 FCFA | 2,500 FCFA | 48-72 h |
| Out-of-state | 3,000-5,000 FCFA | Quote | 72 h+ |
Mini case study
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Awa, who runs a cosmetics shop in Lagos, applied a flat 1,500 FCFA fee. On orders delivered to the outskirts (real cost 2,500 FCFA) she lost 1,000 FCFA per parcel; at 30 out-of-centre orders a month, that is 30,000 FCFA of vanished margin. Switching to a zone grid plus free shipping above 25,000 FCFA (her average basket being 16,000 FCFA), her average basket rose to 22,000 FCFA and conversion by +14 %. Net result: delivery margin back to neutral and revenue up.
FAQ
What free-shipping threshold should I pick? Aim for 1.5 to 2x your average basket. With a 16,000 FCFA average, a 25,000-30,000 FCFA threshold nudges customers to add an item without ruining you (free shipping only costs on large, more profitable baskets).
Does free shipping really sell more? Yes: in 2026 a well-calibrated conditional free-shipping offer adds +10 to +18 % conversion. The word "free" removes a major psychological barrier, especially on mobile.
Weight-based or zone-based fees? Zone-based in 90 % of cases: it is clearer for the customer. Weight-based only makes sense for bulky goods (appliances, heavy food packs).
What does an intra-Lagos delivery really cost in 2026? Between 1,000 and 2,500 FCFA depending on zone and courier. Charging below that cost means subsidising every order.
How do I handle out-of-state orders? Move to quote mode or a high flat fee (3,000-5,000 FCFA) with a 72 h+ delay. Never underprice long-haul: it destroys margin fastest.
Let's talk about your project. We set up your zone-based delivery grid directly in your online store, with a free-shipping threshold and Wave/Orange Money payment. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
