The verdict in three sentences
A market study is not about filling a file: it is about avoiding wasting millions on a product nobody wants. The lean method favors speed and field work: 30 to 50 real conversations are worth more than an 80-page bought report. The final goal is binary — a go/no-go backed by figures on demand, acceptance price and competition.
The methods and their cost/reliability ratio
Not all methods are equal. Here is a comparison for an SME wanting to validate fast and well in 2026.
| Method | Indicative cost | Timeline | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Field interviews (30-50) | 0 - 80,000 FCFA | 1-2 weeks | High |
| Online survey (Google Forms) | 0 - 30,000 FCFA | 3-7 days | Medium |
| Competitor analysis | 0 FCFA | 2-4 days | Medium-high |
| Ad test (Meta Ads) | 30,000 - 100,000 FCFA | 1 week | High |
| Public data (ANSD) | 0 FCFA | 1-3 days | Variable |
| Study commissioned to a firm | 1,000,000+ FCFA | 1-3 months | High but slow |
The ad test is underrated: for 50,000 FCFA of Meta Ads budget, you measure a real click and sign-up rate, i.e. a purchase intent far more reliable than a "yes I would buy it" in an interview.
Estimating market size and acceptance price
Two figures decide a go: how many potential customers, and how much they are willing to pay. Here is a simple calculation frame.
| Step | Question | Worked example |
|---|---|---|
| Target | How many possible customers in the area? | 20,000 households |
| Penetration | What realistic % to reach in year 1? | 2 % = 400 customers |
| Frequency | How many purchases per year? | 4 |
| Average basket | Median acceptance price? | 5,000 FCFA |
| Year-1 revenue potential | Target x frequency x basket | 8,000,000 FCFA |
The acceptance price is measured by asking for a real commitment (pre-order, deposit) rather than an opinion. If 30 % of your interviewees agree to pre-pay, the signal is strong.
The minimal questionnaire
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A good field questionnaire fits in 6 questions: What is your biggest problem on this topic? How do you solve it today? How much does it cost you? Would you buy a solution like X? At what price? Would you reserve now? The last three turn opinion into measurable intent.
Mini case study
Moussa wants to launch a home laundry service in Dakar. Instead of a firm at 1,500,000 FCFA, he runs 40 interviews (free) and a Meta Ads test at 45,000 FCFA. Result: 12 % click-through, 18 people leave their number, and 6 accept a 2,000 FCFA deposit. With a median acceptance price of 3,500 FCFA and 400 customers targeted in year 1 at 4 orders, he projects 5,600,000 FCFA of revenue. Decision: go, for a study cost of 45,000 FCFA instead of 1,500,000.
FAQ
How many interviews are needed to validate a market? 30 to 50 field interviews are enough to surface clear trends on a local market. Beyond that, answers repeat and the information gain becomes marginal.
How much does a lean market study cost? Under 150,000 FCFA in 2026 if you combine free interviews, an online survey and a small ad test. A classic firm charges from 1,000,000 FCFA.
Is an online survey reliable? Moderately: it captures opinions, not purchase intent. Pair it with an ad test or pre-orders to measure real willingness to pay.
How do I decide go or no-go? Set thresholds before the study: for example a go if more than 15 % of interviewees accept to pre-pay and if potential revenue exceeds your break-even. Otherwise, pivot or stop.
Can I be paid for referring SMEs to Kolonell? Yes, our referral program pays 15 % on the sale of a showcase website + 5 % recurring, 12 % for e-commerce, 10 % for marketplace, 8 % for institutional. Any SME that validates its market then needs a website to sell.
Let's talk about your project. We help you validate your market and launch the website that converts your first customers, and you can become a Kolonell referral partner. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
