The verdict in three sentences
Payment fraud takes three main forms: card chargeback, fake webhook callback and delivery scam (COD). In 2026, the card fraud rate in Africa hovers around 1 to 3% of transactions, each chargeback costing 5 to 15 USD on top of the amount. The right defenses — 3DS (card fraud -60%), scoring and verification — protect your margin without killing conversion.
Fraud overview
Each payment channel has its typical fraud. Knowing the threat is already half the defense.
| Fraud type | Channel | Typical 2026 cost | Main defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargeback | Card | 5-15 USD + amount | 3DS + delivery proof |
| Fake callback | Webhook | Free merchandise | HMAC signature |
| COD cancellation | Delivery | 8-20% of COD | Deposit + scoring |
| Stolen card | Card | Amount + penalty | 3DS + address check |
| Account takeover | Login | Variable | 2FA + detection |
COD (cash on delivery) stays popular but generates 8 to 20% fraudulent or frivolous cancellations: a mobile money deposit sharply reduces this risk.
Defenses and their effectiveness
No single defense is enough; the combination protects. Here is the indicative effectiveness of each measure.
| Measure | Targeted fraud | Effectiveness (2026 order) | Conversion impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3DS | Stolen card | -60% card fraud | Slight friction |
| Risk scoring | Multi-channel | Recovers ~50% false positives | Neutral |
| Address verification | Card | Medium | Low |
| Deposit on COD | Delivery | -50 to -70% cancellations | Moderate |
| Per-customer limits | Multi-channel | Good | Low |
Scoring deserves nuance: well-tuned, it recovers about 50% of false positives (legitimate customers wrongly blocked), avoiding lost sales while blocking fraudsters.
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Mini case study
Cheikh, who runs a high-tech shop in Dakar, sold heavily via COD and suffered 18% cancellations on delivery, with couriers returning empty-handed. On 150 COD orders/month at 25,000 FCFA, that meant 27 lost parcels, roughly 135,000 FCFA in wasted delivery fees each month. He imposes a 20% deposit via Wave at order time and adds simple scoring (customer, zone, history). Result: cancellations dropped to 6%, or 9 parcels, and about 90,000 FCFA/month saved. Serious customers pay the deposit without flinching; the frivolous ones vanish.
FAQ
What is a chargeback? It is a card payment dispute initiated by the customer with their bank. Beyond the refunded amount, it costs the merchant 5 to 15 USD in fees and hurts their standing with the PSP.
Does 3DS slow down checkout? Slightly, as it adds an authentication step. But it cuts card fraud by about 60% and often shifts chargeback liability to the issuing bank.
How do I limit COD cancellations? Ask for a 15 to 20% mobile money deposit at order time and score the customer. This drops fraudulent cancellations by 50 to 70% and saves delivery fees.
Does scoring block real customers? Badly tuned, yes. Well-configured, it recovers about 50% of false positives and only blocks genuinely risky profiles, preserving conversion.
Where do I start on a small budget? Enable HMAC signatures on your webhooks and a deposit on COD first: these are the cheapest, most effective measures against the most common frauds.
Let's talk about your project. We set up 3DS, scoring and COD deposits tailored to your shop. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
