The verdict in three sentences
Uncontrolled fraud eats 0.5 to 2 % of revenue and each card chargeback costs around 15,000 FCFA on top of lost goods. The answer is not to block everything: a scoring engine based on signals (velocity, geolocation, disposable number, abnormal amount) filters the real risk. The KPI to watch is the false-positive rate: rejecting a good customer costs more than one fraudster slipping through.
The signals that reveal fraud
No single signal is enough; it is their accumulation that triggers action. A 3 a.m. order from a foreign IP with a number created the day before and an amount 5x the average basket deserves stronger verification.
| Signal | What it reveals | Risk weight |
|---|---|---|
| Velocity (rapid orders) | Bot or card testing | High |
| IP geo != delivery country | Hijacked account | Medium-high |
| Disposable / recent number | Throwaway account | Medium |
| Abnormal amount (> 5x avg) | Cash-out fraud | High |
| Disposable e-mail | Ephemeral account | Medium |
| Unknown relay delivery address | Reshipping | Medium |
| Multi-cards same session | Card testing | Very high |
Scoring rules and 3DS: the right tuning
Assign points per signal, then set tiers: under 30 points let it through, 30 to 60 require 3DS, above that block and review manually. 3DS (strong authentication) shifts chargeback liability to the issuing bank.
| Cumulative score | Action | Conversion impact |
|---|---|---|
| 0-29 | Direct payment | None |
| 30-59 | 3DS required | -2 to -5 % |
| 60-79 | Manual review | +1 h delay |
| >= 80 | Block | — |
| 3DS amount threshold | > 100,000 FCFA | recommended |
| False positives target | < 2 % | to steer |
Mini case study
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Ibrahim runs a high-tech store in Lagos and Abidjan, 12,000,000 FCFA monthly revenue. Without rules he suffered 1.8 % fraud, i.e. 216,000 FCFA/month lost. He enables simple scoring and 3DS above 100,000 FCFA: fraud drops to 0.4 % (48,000 FCFA), with only 1.5 % false positives. Net monthly gain: about 168,000 FCFA, for an integration cost recovered in under a month.
FAQ
What is the real cost of a chargeback? In 2026, budget around 15,000 FCFA in handling fees per card chargeback, plus goods and processing time. Mobile money limits this risk since there is less charge-back than with cards.
Does 3DS hurt conversion? A little (2 to 5 % abandonment on the step), which is why it is only enforced above an amount or score threshold, not on every payment.
How do I avoid false positives? Combine several signals rather than one, keep a whitelist of loyal customers and aim for under 2 % of good customers blocked.
Is mobile money safer than cards? It reduces card testing and chargebacks, but exposes you to fraudulent cash-out and social engineering; scoring is still essential.
Do I need an external tool or home-made rules? For low volume, home-made rules suffice; above a few thousand transactions a month, a dedicated scoring engine pays off.
Let's talk about your project. We set up anti-fraud scoring and conditional 3DS to protect your margin without breaking conversion. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
