The verdict in three sentences
The last mile alone accounts for 40 to 55 % of the total logistics cost of an e-commerce order in Lagos. The motorbike remains the most profitable mode in dense areas: a run costs between 800 and 1,500 NGN and a rider crosses into profit from the 8th run of the day. Without order density and clear zone pricing, every delivery erodes your margin instead of feeding it.
The unit economics of a bike run
The cost of a run is not a single number: it depends on fuel, bike depreciation, rider pay and idle time. Here is a 2026 order-of-magnitude breakdown for an average 6-to-9 km run in Lagos.
| Cost item | Share of cost | Estimated amount / run |
|---|---|---|
| Rider pay | 45 % | 550 NGN |
| Fuel | 18 % | 220 NGN |
| Bike depreciation + maintenance | 15 % | 180 NGN |
| Insurance + overhead | 12 % | 145 NGN |
| Idle time / empty returns | 10 % | 120 NGN |
| Average total cost | 100 % | 1,215 NGN |
Fuel weighs 15 to 20 % of the cost: across a fleet, every price rise at the pump hits margin directly. Idle time (waiting for the customer, missing address) is the most insidious item because it never shows on an invoice.
Density, zones and break-even
The variable that decides everything is the number of runs per day per rider. The closer the drop-off points, the lower the cost per run.
| Runs / day / rider | Average cost / run | Economic status |
|---|---|---|
| 6 runs | 1,800 NGN | Loss |
| 8 runs | 1,320 NGN | Break-even |
| 12 runs | 1,050 NGN | Profitable |
| 16 runs | 860 NGN | Comfortable |
| 20 runs | 740 NGN | Optimal |
The average delivery time by bike in Lagos hovers around 45 minutes in 2026 outside rush hour. Grouping runs by area (Ikeja, Lekki, Yaba) and dispatching routes rather than isolated runs is the number one lever to move from 8 to 15 runs per day.
Mini case study
Chidi runs a cosmetics store in Ikeja. He delivered one order at a time: 7 runs a day, average cost 1,750 NGN, near-zero net margin. By grouping deliveries into two morning/afternoon routes and charging 1,500 NGN for delivery beyond 3 km, he climbs to 14 runs a day at 1,000 NGN cost. Result: 500 NGN of logistics margin per run × 14 = 7,000 NGN of margin per day per rider, versus a prior loss.
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FAQ
How much does a bike run really cost in Lagos in 2026?
Between 800 and 1,500 NGN depending on distance and density, averaging around 1,215 NGN for 6 to 9 km. The cost drops sharply once a rider chains more than 12 runs a day.
From how many runs a day is a rider profitable?
The threshold sits around 8 runs a day. Below that, fixed costs (pay, depreciation) are not absorbed; above 12, each run becomes clearly profitable.
What is the heaviest cost item?
Rider pay, roughly 45 % of the cost per run. Fuel comes next at 15 to 20 %, very sensitive to pump price swings.
Should you charge the customer for delivery?
Yes, at least beyond a threshold distance (e.g. 3 km) or on low baskets. Free delivery with no product margin destroys profitability in low-density areas.
How do you cut cost per run without cutting service?
Group deliveries into area routes, optimise the drop order, and track runs per rider daily. Moving from 8 to 15 runs halves the unit cost.
Let's talk about your project. We build your e-commerce store with a delivery zoning and pricing module designed for profitability. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
