The verdict in three sentences
The last mile is the most expensive and most visible logistics line item for the customer: in Lagos it costs between 1,500 and 3,500 NGN per delivery and represents 8 to 15 % of the sale price. The right model depends on your volume: partner bike-taxi below 300 orders/month, in-house fleet above, 3PL when you want multi-city coverage without tying up capital. Cutting the delivery failure rate (10 to 20 % in dense areas) is the number-one lever to lower your real cost per delivered parcel.
The three last-mile delivery models
In a dense urban area like Lagos or Abidjan, three models coexist. The choice comes down to monthly volume, cost predictability and customer experience quality.
| Model | Cost per delivery | Fixed monthly cost | Ideal volume | Quality control |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partner bike-taxi | 1,500-2,500 NGN | 0 NGN | < 300/month | Low |
| In-house courier (bike) | 700-1,500 NGN real | 150,000-300,000 NGN | 300-600/month | High |
| 3PL (provider) | 2,000-3,500 NGN | 0-50,000 NGN | Multi-city | Medium |
| Pickup point | 400-1,000 NGN | Variable | Complement | Medium |
The partner bike-taxi requires no investment but gives little control over timing and the customer relationship. The in-house courier is costly in fixed terms but drives down unit cost as soon as volume climbs. The 3PL outsources everything at the price of a higher margin per parcel.
What inflates the real cost: delivery failures
The quoted cost is not the real cost. Every failed delivery (absent customer, vague address, cash-on-delivery refused) triggers a second run, often billed, and sometimes a return to stock.
| Item | Cost impact | Reduction lever |
|---|---|---|
| Failure rate 10-20 % | +15-30 % cost/delivered parcel | WhatsApp confirmation before dispatch |
| Imprecise addresses | 1-2 calls per parcel | Geolocation + landmark |
| Cash on delivery | 5-10 % refusal | Collect via Wave/OM before dispatch |
| Missed windows | Dissatisfaction, lower repeat | 3-4 h window announced by SMS |
A 15 % failure rate means that for 100 parcels you pay for about 115 runs. That is the difference between a healthy margin and a negative margin on small baskets.
Mini case study
Ibrahim runs a cosmetics shop in Lagos (Lekki). He ships 400 orders/month, average basket 6,000 NGN. With a partner bike-taxi at 2,000 NGN and an 18 % failure rate, his real cost per delivered parcel is 2,000 x 1.18 = 2,360 NGN, or 14.75 % of the basket. Switching to an in-house courier (fixed 250,000 NGN + 600 NGN fuel/parcel) and confirming every order via WhatsApp (failure down to 6 %), his cost becomes 250,000/400 + 600 x 1.06 = 625 + 636 = 1,261 NGN, or 8.7 % of the basket. Saving: 439,000 NGN/month.
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FAQ
How much does a delivery cost in Lagos in 2026?
Expect an order of magnitude of 1,500 to 3,500 NGN intra-city depending on distance and model. A pickup point can drop to 400-1,000 NGN when the customer agrees to travel.
At what volume do you need an in-house fleet?
Generally above 300 to 400 orders/month concentrated in one area. Below that, the bike-taxi partner or 3PL stays cheaper because you don't carry the fixed cost.
How do you reduce the delivery failure rate?
Confirm every order by WhatsApp before dispatch, collect via Wave or Orange Money rather than cash on delivery, and announce a time window. This can move failure from 18 % to under 8 %.
Does cash on delivery really cost more?
Yes: 5 to 10 % of cash-on-delivery payments fail (no cash, refusal). Collecting upfront via mobile money removes this risk and secures the margin.
Should you charge the customer for delivery?
Recommended on small baskets. A flat 1,000-1,500 NGN fee or free above a threshold (1.3x the median basket) protects the margin while staying clear.
Let's talk about your project. We build your e-commerce store with WhatsApp confirmation, Wave/OM collection and delivery tracking built in. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
