The verdict in three sentences
The last mile is the line item that makes or breaks e-commerce profitability in Lagos: it can represent up to 50% of total logistics cost. Below 20-30 deliveries/day, a delivery partner is cheaper than an in-house fleet; above that, going in-house pays off. The real margin killer is not the run cost but the failure rate (customer absent, vague address), which tracking and a pre-call sharply reduce.
What the last mile costs in Lagos
Prices vary widely by zone and density. Central, high-traffic areas are pricier in time than in distance; far-out districts are far but dense.
| Lagos zone | Partner delivery cost (est. 2026) | Average lead time |
|---|---|---|
| Victoria Island / Ikoyi | 2,000-3,000 FCFA | 2-4 h |
| Lagos Island / Yaba | 1,800-2,500 FCFA | 2-3 h |
| Ikeja | 2,500-3,500 FCFA | 3-5 h |
| Surulere / Mushin | 2,500-3,500 FCFA | 3-6 h |
| Lekki / outskirts | 3,000-4,500 FCFA | 4-24 h |
| Intra-district (< 3 km) | 1,000-1,500 FCFA | 1-2 h |
In Abidjan the order of magnitude is comparable: 1,500-3,000 FCFA per urban run, with lead times stretched by traffic.
Partner, in-house, or mixed?
The choice hinges on volume and failure rate. A failed delivery costs twice: the wasted outbound run and the re-delivery.
| Criterion | Delivery partner | In-house fleet |
|---|---|---|
| Cost per run | 1,500-3,500 FCFA | 800-1,500 FCFA (at volume) |
| Break-even | < 30 runs/day | > 30 runs/day |
| Upfront investment | Low | Bikes + salaries |
| Quality control | Medium | High |
| Typical failure rate | 12-18% | 6-10% |
| Peak flexibility | High | Limited |
The mixed model — in-house on dense zones, partner on outskirts — is often the optimum. Customer tracking (SMS + link) and a pre-delivery call drop the failure rate from 18% to 8%.
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Mini case study
Ibrahim runs an online grocery in Lagos with 300 orders/month, 12,000 FCFA average basket. Full partner at 2,500 FCFA/run with 16% failure, he pays 300 × 2,500 = 750,000 FCFA, plus 48 re-deliveries at 2,500 = 120,000 FCFA, i.e. 870,000 FCFA/month. Switching to mixed (in-house on central zones, partner elsewhere) with tracking and pre-call, his average cost falls to 1,800 FCFA and failure to 8%: 300 × 1,800 + 24 × 1,800 = 583,200 FCFA/month, i.e. nearly 290,000 FCFA saved.
FAQ
At what volume should I bring delivery in-house? Around 30 regular runs/day, an in-house bike at 800-1,500 FCFA per run becomes cheaper than a partner at 2,500 FCFA. Below that, stay with a partner.
How do I cut the delivery failure rate? A tracking SMS with a time slot, a rider call 15 minutes before, and a geolocated address (GPS point rather than text) bring failure down from ~16% to ~8%.
Should I offer real-time tracking? A simple tracking link is enough at first. Live GPS tracking is a plus for high baskets but not essential below 200 orders/month.
How much should I charge the customer for delivery? Pass on 1,000-2,000 FCFA in dense urban zones and offer it above a basket threshold (e.g. 25,000 FCFA) to raise the average basket without eroding margin.
Does cash on delivery worsen failures? Yes, COD increases returns and failures. Mobile money prepayment sharply reduces the risk, a topic we detail in a dedicated article.
Let's talk about your project. We wire your store with delivery tracking, zones and automated pre-calls to slash your failures. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
