The verdict in three sentences
The last mile makes up 40-60% of total logistics cost for an online store in Lagos, and it's the line most sellers under-charge. The right model — in-house fleet, freelance riders or aggregator — depends on your daily volume and zone density, not on a matter of principle. In 2026 the surviving rule is simple: never offer free delivery below a calculated basket threshold, or every free trip eats into your margin.
Three models, three cost structures
There is no universally cheaper model. Below 15-20 trips/day, the aggregator or freelancer beats the in-house fleet; above that, the fleet becomes unbeatable on unit cost.
| Model (2026 ballpark) | Cost per intra-Lagos trip | Fixed monthly cost | First-attempt success | Best if |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In-house fleet (bike + salary) | 900-1,500 FCFA | 150,000-250,000 FCFA | 85-92% | >20 trips/day |
| Dedicated freelance rider | 1,500-2,500 FCFA | 0 | 80-88% | 10-20 trips/day |
| Aggregator (Yango/Gozem) | 2,000-3,500 FCFA | 0 | 75-85% | <10 trips/day |
The in-house fleet has high fixed cost but low variable cost: it's only profitable with volume. The aggregator is expensive per unit but commitment-free: perfect for absorbing peaks or starting out.
Real cost depends on zone density
A "Lagos" trip means nothing: delivering three parcels in the same district costs three times less per parcel than three scattered ones. Density is what makes the margin.
| Zone (2026 estimate) | Average cost per parcel | Basket needed for profitability | Transport as % of sale price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dense central (Ikoyi/VI) | 900-1,400 FCFA | 12,000 FCFA | 8-12% |
| Inner mainland | 1,200-1,800 FCFA | 16,000 FCFA | 10-14% |
| Outer mainland | 1,500-2,200 FCFA | 20,000 FCFA | 12-18% |
| Suburbs / out of town | 2,500-4,000 FCFA | 30,000 FCFA | 18-25% |
Threshold rule: free delivery only becomes profitable above ~25,000 FCFA basket in dense zones, and much higher on the outskirts. Below that, charge for delivery explicitly.
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Mini case study
Ibrahim sells tech accessories in Lagos: 12 trips/day, average basket 22,000 FCFA, currently 100% aggregator at 2,800 FCFA/trip. Monthly transport cost: 12 × 26 days × 2,800 = 873,600 FCFA, i.e. 12.7% of revenue.
He switches to a dedicated freelance rider at 1,900 FCFA/trip: 12 × 26 × 1,900 = 592,800 FCFA. Saving: 280,800 FCFA/month. Then he sets free delivery from 25,000 FCFA and charges 2,000 FCFA below it. Result: 40% of customers raise their basket to hit the threshold, and net transport falls under 9% of revenue. At 25 trips/day, he'll move to an in-house fleet.
FAQ
Why is the last mile so expensive? Because it's hard to pool: a rider spends most of their time travelling and waiting, not actually delivering. It's the least optimizable part of the chain, hence its 40-60% of total cost.
In-house fleet or aggregator: how to decide? By volume. Below ~10 trips/day, the fixed-cost-free aggregator wins. Above ~20 trips/day, the in-house fleet crushes unit cost despite its 150,000-250,000 FCFA/month fixed charges.
At what amount should I offer free delivery? Above roughly your delivery cost × 3, i.e. ~25,000 FCFA in dense zones in 2026. Below that threshold, every free delivery eats directly into your product margin.
How do I improve first-attempt success? A WhatsApp-confirmed time slot, a verified number at order, and a "rider on the way" notification. These take success from ~80% to over 90%, and each avoided failure saves a second trip.
Should I charge for delivery or build it into the price? Both strategies work, but folding an average cost into the price penalizes dense zones and subsidizes far ones. Zone-based pricing is fairer and more profitable.
Let's talk about your project. We build your store with zone-based delivery pricing, a calculated free-delivery threshold and tracking that cuts your failures. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
