The verdict in three sentences
The last mile is the costliest and least-controlled logistics line item: it carries 45 to 60 % of total logistics cost for an online store. In 2026, each intra-city delivery averages 1,350 FCFA, with a 14 % failure rate that doubles the true cost of the affected parcels. The right model depends solely on your daily delivery volume: below 26 runs a day, an in-house fleet loses money.
The three delivery models compared
Three ways to run the last mile coexist: build your own motorbike fleet, call an on-demand courier run by run, or plug into a logistics aggregator that charges a flat fee plus commission. Each has a different break-even.
| Model | 2026 unit cost | Fixed cost | Break-even | Quality control |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In-house motorbike fleet | ~750 FCFA/run at full load | 22,000 FCFA/day/bike + fuel | 26 runs/day | High |
| On-demand courier | 1,200-2,000 FCFA/run | 0 | Immediate | Medium |
| Aggregator | 1,500 FCFA + 8 % of basket | 0 | Immediate | Variable |
| Mix in-house + overflow | ~1,050 FCFA average | 22,000 FCFA/day | 18 runs/day | High |
An in-house bike at 22,000 FCFA/day (rider + depreciation) handles about 18 runs in good conditions. Until you saturate those 18 runs, the on-demand courier stays cheaper despite its higher unit price.
What inflates the bill: failures and returns
The headline cost is never the real cost. A 14 % failure rate (customer absent, wrong address, refusal) means one delivery in seven is paid for twice: a wasted run plus a reschedule.
| Hidden line item | 2026 impact | Effect on cost/delivery |
|---|---|---|
| 14 % failure rate | +1 run in 7 | +190 FCFA/delivery |
| Parcel return | 6 % of orders | +8 % logistics cost |
| Customer wait >10 min | 3 runs/day lost | -350 FCFA margin |
| Volatile fuel | +12 % vs 2025 | +90 FCFA/run |
| Peripheral zone | +40 % distance | +540 FCFA/run |
Cutting failure from 14 % to 8 % via a confirmation call before departure and a time slot lowers the real cost per delivery by nearly 12 %.
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Mini case study
Segbo runs a cosmetics shop: 22 deliveries/day across the city. Using an on-demand courier at 1,400 FCFA, he pays 30,800 FCFA/day. With an in-house bike at 22,000 FCFA/day covering 18 runs plus 4 overflow courier runs (5,600 FCFA), he drops to 27,600 FCFA/day, saving ~96,000 FCFA/month. The day he durably exceeds 26 runs, a second bike becomes profitable.
FAQ
At how many runs does an in-house fleet pay off? In 2026, break-even is around 26 runs/day with a bike at 22,000 FCFA/day. Below that, the on-demand courier is cheaper because you only pay for runs actually completed.
What does a failed delivery really cost? A failed delivery adds roughly 190 FCFA to the average cost of every successful one, since the lost run and reschedule spread across all deliveries. At 14 % failure, that is nearly 12 % of logistics overhead.
Should you charge the customer for delivery? Yes, but carefully: above 12 % of the basket, fees drive abandonment up. Free delivery above 30,000 FCFA protects margin while lifting the average basket.
Is the aggregator's 8 % commission worth it? It's useful for absorbing peaks and covering the periphery without tying up a bike. On a high average basket, 8 % quickly exceeds an in-house fleet's cost: keep it for overflow, not as the main channel.
How do I track my real cost daily? You must log completed runs, failures, fuel and returns in a sheet or small app. Without data you fly blind and the last mile eats margin unseen.
Let's talk about your project. We build your online store and the logistics dashboard that makes every franc of the last mile visible. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
