The verdict in three sentences
Between 12 and 18 % of mobile money payments stay "pending" after a USSD timeout: the customer did not confirm in time, or the network dropped. Abandoning these transactions outright means losing 15 % of revenue in silence. Status polling over 90 seconds followed by a WhatsApp follow-up within 5 minutes recovers around 40 % of these baskets.
Why a payment stays "pending"
The STK push (or USSD) sends a confirmation prompt to the customer's phone. If they do not enter their PIN within 60 seconds, if the network drops, or if they hesitate, the payment is neither confirmed nor cancelled — it floats. Without a tracking mechanism, your system treats the order as failed even though the money may still arrive.
| 2026 parameter | Value | Role |
|---|---|---|
| STK push timeout | 60 s | Customer confirmation window |
| Recommended polling window | 90 s | Catches late confirmations |
| Max attempts | 3 | Avoids harassing the customer |
| M-Pesa paybill fee | 0 to 0.5 % | Cash-in cost |
| "Pending" rate | 12 to 18 % | Volume to recover |
| Follow-up conversion rate | 38 % | Baskets saved |
Outright abandonment vs polling + follow-up
Many stores mark the order "failed" the moment the 60-second timeout ends. That is the worst decision: some of these payments confirm in the next 30 seconds, and another portion is recovered through follow-up.
| Criterion | Outright abandonment | Polling + follow-up |
|---|---|---|
| Tracking after timeout | None | 90 s polling |
| Lost "pending" baskets | 15 % of revenue | ~9 % of revenue |
| Recovery | 0 % | ~40 % |
| Follow-up channel | None | WhatsApp within 5 min |
| Attempts | 0 | 3 max |
| Follow-up conversion | — | 38 % |
The 5-step recovery playbook
- Launch the STK push and start a 60-second timer.
- On timeout, switch to polling the status every 5 seconds for 90 seconds.
- If still "pending," mark the order "awaiting" (never "failed").
- Send a WhatsApp follow-up within 5 minutes with a direct payment link.
- Cap at 3 attempts then close cleanly so as not to harass the customer.
Mini case study
Grace runs an online grocery in Nairobi, 500 M-Pesa orders a day, average basket 8,000 FCFA equivalent. With 15 % of "pending" payments abandoned outright, she lost 75 orders a day, or 600,000 FCFA of daily revenue evaporating. By turning on polling + WhatsApp follow-up, she recovers 40 % of those baskets — 30 orders saved a day, or 240,000 FCFA recovered daily, over 7,000,000 FCFA a month. The WhatsApp follow-up cost is marginal against the revenue recovered.
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FAQ
Why not mark the order failed right away?
Because 12 to 18 % of payments confirm after the 60-second timeout. Marking "failed" too soon loses the order AND risks a double charge if the customer pays again.
How long should polling last?
A 90-second window after the timeout is enough to catch the vast majority of late confirmations, checking every 5 seconds.
Is WhatsApp follow-up really effective?
Yes: the conversion rate of a follow-up sent within 5 minutes is around 38 %. Beyond that, purchase intent fades and conversion drops.
How many follow-ups without annoying the customer?
Three attempts maximum. Beyond that, the marginal gain is small and the risk of irritating the customer rises. Close the basket cleanly afterwards.
How much revenue can be recovered?
With 15 % "pending" baskets and 40 % recovery, you save about 6 % of total revenue that was previously lost. On a store at 10,000,000 FCFA/month, that is 600,000 FCFA recovered.
Let's talk about your project. We set up polling and WhatsApp follow-up to save your mobile money baskets. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
