The verdict in three sentences
Most carts die at the payment step, not at the catalog. A three-step recovery sequence (15 min, 2 h, 24 h) that points to a one-tap mobile money link recovers 5 to 12% of lost carts. Channel matters: SMS is universal, WhatsApp gets 90% open rates, and a small incentive on the 3rd message tips the undecided.
Why carts die at payment
On mobile in West Africa, abandonment sits between 60 and 75%. The cause is almost never price: it's an OTP that never arrives, a 3G connection that drops, or a last-second doubt. Recovery catches exactly those cases.
| Step | Delay after abandon | Channel | Message goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 minutes | SMS or WhatsApp | neutral reminder + re-pay link |
| 2 | 2 hours | remove doubt, reassure on delivery | |
| 3 | 24 hours | SMS + WhatsApp | incentive (-5 to -10%) + urgency |
Timing, channels and incentive
The first message must go out fast, while intent is warm. The 3rd message carries the incentive, never the first, otherwise you subsidize people who would have paid anyway.
| Metric | 2026 order of magnitude |
|---|---|
| Mobile cart abandonment | 60-75% |
| Recovery with 3-step sequence | 5-12% |
| WhatsApp open rate | ~90% |
| SMS open rate | 95%+ (but less rich) |
| Effective incentive (step 3) | -5 to -10% or free delivery |
| Cost of one SMS | 10-25 FCFA |
| Typical sequence ROI | 5x to 15x send cost |
Mini case study
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Kofi runs a fashion shop in Accra: 500 abandoned carts/month, average cart 25,000 FCFA (~38 EUR). Without recovery: 0 recovered. With the 15 min / 2 h / 24 h sequence and a one-tap MoMo link he recovers 8%, i.e. 40 orders, i.e. 1,000,000 FCFA of extra revenue. Send cost (3 messages x 500) is around 20,000 FCFA. ROI: 50x.
FAQ
What's the best delay for the first message? 15 minutes after abandon. Intent is still warm and many abandons come from a failed OTP or network drop, not a refusal.
SMS or WhatsApp? Both. WhatsApp gives ~90% open and allows images and a button; SMS is universal and doesn't need an account. The sequence combines them.
Should I always offer a discount? No. The incentive should only appear on the 3rd message. Offering from the start means paying customers who would have bought at full price.
Is this compliant with consent? Yes, if the customer left their number at checkout and an opt-out link is present. You send a transactional nudge, not mass spam.
How many messages before stopping? Three is enough. Beyond that, marginal recovery falls and the annoyance risk rises.
Let's talk about your project. We wire an SMS + WhatsApp cart-recovery sequence with a mobile money link into your store. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
