The verdict in three sentences
The last mile is the most expensive and most fragile part of your chain: it carries roughly half of the logistics cost and concentrates most delivery failures. In Lagos in 2026, a drop cost of 1 500 to 3 000 FCFA, an average lead time of D+1 and a failure rate of ~12 % are realistic benchmarks (order of magnitude). Choosing between an in-house fleet and an aggregator is not a gut call: it depends on your daily volume and zone density.
Zone the city before you deliver
Delivering without zoning means paying the same for a central drop and a far suburb. Split the city into coherent pricing zones, each with a promised lead time. This protects your margin and sets a promise you can keep.
| Lagos zone | Promised lead time | Drop cost (est. 2026) | Slot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Island / Victoria Island | D+1 | 1 500 FCFA | Morning or afternoon |
| Yaba / Surulere | D+1 | 1 800 FCFA | Afternoon |
| Ikeja / Oshodi | D+1 to D+2 | 2 200 FCFA | Full day |
| Ajah / Lekki (far) | D+2 | 3 000 FCFA | Full day |
| Outer suburbs | D+2 to D+3 | 3 500 FCFA | Batched 2x/week |
In-house fleet or aggregator?
An in-house fleet is heavy on fixed costs but pays off at high volume and lets you own the experience. An aggregator (Gozem, Yango, independent riders) is ideal to start without tying up capital.
| Criterion | In-house fleet | Aggregator (Gozem/Yango) |
|---|---|---|
| Cost per drop | 800-1 200 FCFA (at volume) | 1 500-3 000 FCFA |
| Monthly fixed cost | 400 000+ FCFA (wages, bikes) | ~0 FCFA |
| Break-even point | > 25-30 drops/day | < 25 drops/day |
| Experience control | High | Medium |
| Proof of delivery | You must industrialize it | Often built in (photo/OTP) |
| GPS tracking | Must be equipped | Native in the app |
Secure the final kilometre
Three levers push the failure rate from 12 % toward 5 %: a slot confirmation by WhatsApp the day before, a mobile money deposit to filter ghost orders, and a proof of delivery (photo + OTP code) that settles disputes. Every failure costs the round-trip transport plus the restocking of tied-up inventory.
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Mini case study
Awa runs a cosmetics shop and delivers 20 orders/day at an average basket of 18 000 FCFA. With an aggregator, each drop costs 1 900 FCFA, i.e. 38 000 FCFA/day. At 12 % failure, she loses 2.4 wasted drops daily (~4 560 FCFA) plus restocking. Adding a 3 000 FCFA mobile money deposit drops failures to 5 %, saving about 2 700 FCFA/day, i.e. over 80 000 FCFA/month — without switching carriers.
FAQ
What failure rate should I target in Lagos in 2026? A rate under 6 % is a good goal. The common starting point is ~12 % on cash-on-delivery; deposits and slot confirmation close most of the gap.
At what volume should I go in-house? As an order of magnitude, above 25-30 drops/day in dense zones an in-house fleet becomes cheaper than an aggregator and improves control.
How do I handle far suburbs? Batch those deliveries twice a week on fixed slots. You split the unit cost and avoid empty runs at 3 000-3 500 FCFA.
Is proof of delivery really worth it? Yes. A timestamped photo plus an OTP code reduce "never received" disputes and speed up reconciliation of cash-on-delivery payments.
Do I need a website to run all this? Ideally a tracking page and an order back-office wired to your riders. It centralizes statuses, proofs and customer notifications.
Let's talk about your project. We build your last-mile flow with zoning, proof of delivery and integrated mobile money payment. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
