The verdict in three sentences
In Kampala, most merchants treat a failed payment as a definitively lost sale, when 60 % of failures are temporary: momentary insufficient balance, timeout, network. A well-tuned automatic dunning sequence, staged over T+0, T+1 and T+3, recovers 35 to 45 % of these failures with no human intervention. The module costs 350,000 to 900,000 FCFA and pays for itself on recovered volume alone within weeks.
Why a failure is not a cancellation
On mobile money, the most common failure is insufficient balance at the exact moment of the charge: the customer will top up within hours. Retrying at the right moment, on the right channel, turns that failure into a collection. Too early, the balance is not there; too late, the sale is forgotten.
| Failure cause | Typical share | Recoverable? | Best retry moment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insufficient balance | 35 to 45 % | Yes | T+0 evening or T+1 morning |
| Timeout / network | 15 to 25 % | Yes | T+0 immediate |
| Customer cancellation | 10 to 15 % | Partial | T+1 with incentive |
| Wrong details | 8 to 12 % | Yes | T+0 with correction |
| Definitive decline | 5 to 10 % | No | Do not retry |
The dunning sequence that converts
The channel matters as much as the timing. SMS reaches everyone, WhatsApp converts better, a direct payment link removes the friction. We escalate without harassing and stop the moment the payment lands.
| Step | Delay | Channel | Cumulative recovery |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retry 1 | T+0 (within the hour) | SMS + payment link | ~18 % |
| Retry 2 | T+1 morning | WhatsApp + link | ~32 % |
| Retry 3 | T+3 | WhatsApp + small incentive | ~42 % |
| Pause | T+5 | Soft final reminder | retained |
| Stop | T+7 | Mark as lost | accepted failure |
Mini case study
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Okello sells airtime and services in Kampala, 1,000 payments/month, of which 180 failures (18 %), average basket 8,000 FCFA, i.e. 1,440,000 FCFA in suspense. With no retries, all is lost. With a dunning sequence recovering 42 %, he saves 76 payments, i.e. 608,000 FCFA/month. A 700,000 FCFA module pays back in a little over a month, then compounds every month.
FAQ
What share of failures can I really recover? On failures dominated by technical and balance causes, a T+0/T+1/T+3 sequence recovers 35 to 45 %. Most of the gain comes from the T+0 retry within the hour.
Which channel works best? WhatsApp usually converts better than SMS, but SMS has the widest reach. We combine both and add a direct payment link to remove friction.
Won't dunning annoy the customer? Not if the sequence is short and stops on payment. Three spaced retries, then stop: we never chase a definitive decline.
How much does an automatic dunning module cost? Budget 350,000 to 900,000 FCFA depending on channels, provider integration and the recovery tracking dashboard.
How do I avoid chasing an already-paid charge? By listening to the webhook: the moment the payment confirms, the sequence stops automatically. No retry fires after collection.
Let's talk about your project. We wire your multi-channel mobile money dunning, from trigger to automatic stop on payment received. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.
