The verdict in three sentences
Under about 30 deliveries a day, outsourced 3PL is more profitable because you only pay per trip. Beyond about 900 trips a month, the in-house fleet absorbs its fixed costs and becomes cheaper. The real trade-off is not only price: quality control, SLA and flexibility weigh as much as unit cost.
3PL vs in-house fleet: the 2026 cost structure
3PL has a 100 % variable cost, an in-house fleet a mostly fixed cost. That difference creates the tipping point. 2026 orders of magnitude in Nairobi.
| Item | Outsourced 3PL | In-house fleet (1 bike) |
|---|---|---|
| Cost per trip | KES 250 - 450 | ~ KES 120 (at capacity) |
| Monthly fixed cost | KES 0 | ~ KES 42,000 |
| Fuel / maintenance | Included | ~ KES 15,000/month |
| Rider salary | Included | ~ KES 20,000/month |
| Capacity / bike | Unlimited (network) | ~ 25 trips/day |
The in-house fleet requires a bike (~KES 42,000 amortized), fuel and a salary. As long as volume does not fill the bike, cost per trip stays high; at full load it becomes very competitive.
The cost / volume tipping point
How many trips before in-house beats 3PL? Simulation at an average 3PL rate of KES 400 and an all-in in-house fixed cost of KES 77,000/month.
| Trips / month | 3PL cost | In-house fleet cost | Winning option |
|---|---|---|---|
| 300 | KES 120,000 | KES 77,000 + variable | 3PL (flexibility) |
| 600 | KES 240,000 | ~ KES 92,000 | Tipping point |
| 900 | KES 360,000 | ~ KES 107,000 | In-house |
| 1,500 | KES 600,000 | ~ KES 137,000 (2 bikes) | In-house |
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The crossover sits around 600 to 900 trips/month. Below it, 3PL flexibility (zero fixed cost, instant scaling) wins. Above it, in-house offers both controlled cost and direct quality control over SLA, uniform and customer relationship.
Mini case study
Samuel runs an online grocery in Nairobi, 1,100 trips/month via 3PL at KES 400, or KES 440,000/month. He invests in 2 bikes and 2 salaried riders: total fixed cost ~KES 137,000/month, plus 3PL overflow on peak days (~KES 30,000). Total cost: KES 167,000. Savings: KES 273,000 per month, plus branded service and a controlled SLA. The hybrid in-house + 3PL-overflow model is often the optimum.
FAQ
At what volume should I move in-house in Nairobi? 2026 order of magnitude: around 900 trips/month (30/day). Below that, 3PL stays more flexible and often cheaper all-in.
Does 3PL guarantee quality? It varies. Demand a written SLA: delivery time, capped failure rate, proof of delivery. Without an SLA, you inherit the network's quality with no recourse.
Can I combine both? Yes, it is the most resilient model: in-house fleet for baseline volume, 3PL overflow on peaks and distant zones. You smooth fixed costs.
What are the hidden costs of an in-house fleet? Breakdowns, leave, insurance, fuel theft. Budget 10 to 15 % on top of the theoretical fixed cost to stay realistic.
Let's talk about your project. We model your 3PL/in-house tipping point and wire delivery tracking into your store. WhatsApp +221 77 596 93 33.
Mohamed Bah
Fondateur, Kolonell
Passionate about digital and entrepreneurship in Africa, Mohamed has been helping Sénégalese businesses with their digital transformation since 2020. Founder of Kolonell, he believes every SME deserves a professional and accessible online présence.